Trade turmoil triggers a surge in demand and delays
What started as a tariff shift in April has rapidly turned into a capacity crunch across the trans-Pacific trade lane.
In April, reciprocal tariffs, especially those targeting China, plummeted import volumes from that region. Carriers responded quickly, pulling capacity and repositioning vessels to other global lanes. Then came another change: the U.S. announced a 90-day grace period with reduced tariffs of 10% for all countries, except China, Mexico and Canada.
Importers rushed to front-load shipments from Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Bangladesh and Malaysia first and then to release previously held cargo from China. With less available capacity, bookings skyrocketed, and carriers were quickly overbooked.
Congestion and capacity collide
The result has been a wave of disruption:
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Ports like Shanghai are congested, with many vessels queued
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Ocean rates are rising, with multiple general rate increases in May and early- and mid-June
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Chassis and equipment shortages may start to surface inland during the summer months
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Rail hubs like Chicago and Dallas may see growing delays as full containers begin to stack up, if the import volumes arrive all together at the West Coast ports
Though May and June resemble early COVID disruption, it’s different this time. There's no spike in consumer demand, just a flood of cargo triggered by a time-limited policy window. That means a short-term capacity crisis with possible long-term ripple effects.
What’s ahead for U.S. importers
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Vessels arriving now are completely full, and more are on the way
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There is a potential risk of backlogs at origin and destination ports
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Retail peak season overlaps with this Asian front-load period, increasing pressure on capacity
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Empty container repositioning may lag, potentially creating container shortages in Asia if volumes grow in June and July
With Southeast Asia’s 90-day window expiring earlier than China’s, the scramble to move freight is accelerating. Ocean carriers may allocate equipment and space mainly to the highest-paying customers, and competition with Europe’s retail season is heating up.
Though things can change at any time, the market situation is expected to improve in late June and July, as ocean carriers increase capacity in June through the Transpacific route. Early signs also suggest a potential easing of ocean freight rates, but this remains to be seen.
What you should do now
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Secure space early: don’t rely on spot bookings
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Provide a mid-long term cargo forecast for your summer months, to start bookings as fast and early as possible
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Think beyond ocean rates — delays and added fees may erase any upfront savings; focus on the total logistics landed cost (prioritizing capacity)
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Build flexibility into your domestic transportation plan
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Stay informed as conditions shift daily with trade policy developments
How ArcBest helps you navigate
ArcBest offers a range of international solutions to help shippers manage through this volatile stretch:
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Capacity access via strong contracts with most major carriers
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Real-time visibility and proactive communication
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Integrated inland services through expedite, LTL, truckload service through our MoLo network and managed solutions
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Support at ports and touch points to avoid delays, reduce penalties and keep inventory flowing
Plan your next shipment
This may not be a long-term shift, but it is fast-moving and looking to be a disruptive one. Whether you're replenishing inventory or moving seasonal freight, the next few months will test supply chains again. ArcBest is ready to help you stay agile, reduce risk and make smarter decisions under pressure.
It’s critical to watch how inventory restocking, consumer demand and geopolitical factors play out in the coming weeks. Contact us today for help moving and managing your international freight.
