How retail shippers can stay ahead of holiday returns
The holiday season may end in early January for most people, but for e-commerce and retail operations, the real rush is only beginning. As customers return or exchange items in the new year, post-holiday shipping becomes a critical stress test for supply chains. Add rising consumer expectations for speed and visibility, and the stakes get even higher.
This guide explores strategies for managing post-holiday shipments: from demand forecasting based on shopping behaviors to leveraging flexible carrier networks and technology to keep customers happy.
Trends to watch in 2025
Managing returns isn’t just about getting items back — it’s about finding efficient ways to process them, recover value and keep customers satisfied. But as return volumes grow, so do the challenges of reverse logistics. Consider these statistics:
The National Retail Federation announced that consumers are expected to return nearly $850 billion in merchandise in 2025. Returns reached $890 billion in 2024.
82% of consumers say free returns are an important consideration when shopping online.
An NRF report found 9% of all returns are fraudulent.
The good news is returns don’t have to slow down operations or cut into profit. By choosing the right logistics partner and implementing efficient strategies, you can manage every return confidently.
6 tips for a holiday-proof reverse logistics process
Holiday returns are inevitable, but a well-prepared reverse logistics strategy can help you handle the rush with minimal disruption. These six strategies can set you up for success this season.
1. Be proactive
The most successful retailers get ahead of returns before the holiday rush ends. Look at your past holiday data to get a sense of how many returns to expect and when they usually happen. Once you have that information, work with your logistics provider to understand the volumes they can handle and schedule capacity and staff accordingly.
Make sure warehouse space is available for incoming items and create backup plans with your provider for potential bottlenecks. Planning together helps prevents last-minute surprises.
2. Prepare to pivot
Forecasts and contingency plans are essential, but unexpected surges in returns, carrier delays or weather disruptions can still happen. That’s why it’s important to build flexibility into your logistics strategy. Work closely with your provider to adjust pickup schedules, reroute shipments if needed and tap into additional warehouse or carrier capacity at short notice.
3. Be clear about your policies
Clear communication can make a huge difference in customer satisfaction and operational efficiency. Make your return policies easy to find and simple to understand, including timeframes, item conditions and expected refund schedules.
4. Leverage technology
The right technology helps you stay on top of post-holiday returns. Use inventory management systems to track stock in real time. Analytics dashboards can help you identify patterns in returns by SKU, location or customer type, which informs staffing and restocking decisions. Consider integrating your logistics provider’s technology with your systems so you can schedule pickups, track shipments and send status updates to customers.
5. Monitor returns and protect against fraud
High return volumes can sometimes attract fraudulent activity, so it’s important to stay vigilant. Set up thresholds to flag accounts returning an unusually high number of items, and work with your logistics provider to verify return eligibility for high-value products.
6. Build strong relationships with logistics providers
Reliable carriers are invaluable, especially after the holiday period. Seek out transportation partners that emphasize regular communication to stay ahead of potential challenges. They can help you navigate things like what transportation mode to use and help ensure that your goods are shipped efficiently.
Partner with ArcBest for seamless shipping solutions
Having a comprehensive strategy for managing the post-holiday rush is the key to streamlining operations and keeping customers satisfied. ArcBest has the expertise and resources your business needs to navigate the complexities of this busy season.
Whether it’s addressing the challenges of reverse logistics or optimizing your supply chain through managed solutions, our team is well-equipped to help you meet your goals.
Reach out today — we’ll help you prepare with confidence.
