How seasonality shapes full truckload availability
Seasonal changes affect more than just the weather — they also play a big role in full truckload capacity. From summer’s produce season to the quieter winter months, different times of the year have varying levels of freight demand, which impacts how easy it is to secure equipment.
Learn how seasonality influences truck availability and get some tips for dealing with these shifts in demand.
Capacity changes throughout the year
Take a closer look at how full truckload capacity fluctuates in different quarters, so you can plan ahead:
Quarter 1 (Jan-March)
Q1 usually shows a softer market due to low spending after the holiday season. This trend often leads to increased capacity, making finding trucks easier (and sometimes cheaper) compared to other quarters.
However, it's worth noting that winter weather can occasionally disrupt capacity in certain regions, although these disruptions are usually brief. Additionally, the onset of the Lunar New Year in Q1 tends to disrupt global supply chains. This holiday reduces shipping container volumes at major ports, lowering domestic volumes and freeing up capacity.
Quarter 2 (April-June)
Q2 typically brings increased truckload shipments in the Southern and Southeastern United States, while many markets in the Midwest, Northeast and Pacific Northwest Coast experience flat or declining volumes. The increased demand in the south is due to produce season — when the most significant volume of fruits and vegetables move across the country.
It's important to note that produce season doesn’t usually impact the entire market. For example, outbound lanes from Florida or Georgia may experience tighter capacity (and higher rates) due to heightened demand for oranges, peaches and other produce shipped from these states. Conversely, inbound lanes into these regions may have slight rate decreases because drivers know they can easily obtain outbound loads to get home.
However, it can be difficult to find specialized equipment like refrigerated trucks for hauling produce in other regions of the country during this time. You may also notice inconsistencies as some carriers favor more profitable produce loads.
In addition to produce season, DOT Week typically falls in Q2, which can impact available capacity. Learn more about this annual event.
Quarter 3 (July – Sept)
Q3 marks the end of the Southern produce season, but harvests transition to the Northeast, Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest areas as goods like corn, melons and apples ripen. This quarter also sees the start of peak shipping season, which occurs from August through October and brings the highest freight volumes of the year. Back-to-school purchases can also drive demand for transportation during this period.
Quarter 4 (October – December)
Q4 generally begins as a soft market but quickly transitions to a tight one as demand increases in early November. This surge is driven by consumers gearing up for holiday-related purchases, which boosts demand and gives drivers greater negotiating power.
Additional disruptions can arise around Thanksgiving and Christmas, when fewer drivers are available, intensifying the already challenging conditions for shippers.
Winter weather also plays a role in Q4 capacity since severe storms can cause hazardous conditions that delay transit times. This often leads to cascading effects where delays in one area lead to bottlenecks in others, affecting equipment availability in multiple areas.
Tips for navigating annual truckload capacity trends
Adapting to changes in truckload capacity requires preparation, flexibility and strategic partnerships. Help your shipments reach their destinations with these tips:
Plan ahead
Forecasting your transportation needs makes it easier to secure capacity during periods of high demand. Consider historical data, market forecasts and upcoming industry events to anticipate when equipment may be more difficult to find. This proactive approach allows you to book transportation early and avoid last-minute scrambling, ensuring your shipments are handled smoothly and on time.
Be prepared to mode shift
In times of capacity constraints or rising costs, be prepared to explore alternative transportation modes such as intermodal, less-than-truckload or even air freight for urgent shipments. Mode shifting can offer cost savings, improve transit times and provide a backup plan when truckload capacity is limited.
Work with a trusted provider
Partnering with a reliable transportation provider gives you access to industry expertise and established relationships with carriers, which can help you find capacity in every market condition. This access to reliable transportation solutions enhances operational efficiency and creates consistency in your supply chain. Learn how to choose an FTL provider.
Stay agile with our capacity network
Market fluctuations demand adaptable solutions. That’s why ArcBest’s truckload service is designed for flexibility and reliability. With our expansive MoLo network, a team of experts who get to know your business, and the ability to shift modes when needed, we make it easy to find capacity for your shipments.